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Effective waste management plays a vital role in improving public health, sanitation, and environmental sustainability, especially in underprivileged communities. This study focuses on six municipalities in the Birbhum district of West Bengal, aiming to estimate population growth, organic waste generation, and the resulting biomethane production potential up to the year 2051. By using a combination of traditional forecasting methods like Arithmetic and Geometric Progression for population and advanced models such as ARIMA and LSTM for methane estimation, the research provides a data-driven foundation for renewable energy planning. The high percentage of organic waste in municipal solid waste (57%–64%) highlights the untapped potential for clean energy generation through biomethane, offering a sustainable solution for both environmental and socio-economic upliftment.

Population Growth Projections and Waste Generation Trends

Accurate forecasting of population growth is essential for municipal planning, particularly in estimating future waste management needs. The study employed both Arithmetic and Geometric Progression models to predict the population of six municipalities in Birbhum until 2051. A direct correlation between population increase and organic waste generation was observed. As population densities rise, so does the volume of municipal solid waste, with significant per capita increases projected in municipalities like Suri (645.38 g.p.c.d.) and Rampurhat (609 g.p.c.d.). These projections lay the groundwork for anticipating future demands on waste infrastructure and opportunities for energy recovery.

Composition and Characteristics of Organic Waste in Birbhum

The study identifies that a major share of the municipal solid waste stream in Birbhum—ranging from 57% to 64%—is composed of biodegradable organic matter sourced from markets, households, and gardens. This composition varies slightly across different municipalities but consistently offers a rich substrate for methane generation. Understanding the specific sources and characteristics of organic waste is crucial for designing effective waste segregation, collection, and processing systems, thereby improving overall management efficiency and optimizing resource recovery.

Methane Estimation Using ARIMA and LSTM Models

To accurately forecast methane generation from organic waste, the research applied two advanced time-series prediction techniques—ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural networks. These models enabled precise, data-driven estimates of biomethane yields up to 2051, accounting for fluctuations in population and waste collection efficiencies. For example, Bolpur alone is expected to increase its methane production from 7.67 Gg/year to 57 Gg/year over three decades. These predictive models are instrumental for policymakers in planning biogas infrastructure and assessing environmental impact.

Biomethane Potential and LPG Equivalence in Birbhum Municipalities

The study estimates the biomethane potential of organic waste in terms of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) equivalence, making the data more relatable for practical energy planning. By 2051, municipalities like Rampurhat and Nalhati are expected to produce 19.92 and 24.52 hm³ of methane per year respectively, which could substitute significant amounts of conventional LPG. These findings emphasize the strategic value of municipal organic waste as a decentralized and renewable energy source that can contribute to cleaner cooking fuel alternatives in rural and urban settings alike.

Policy Implications and Sustainable Development Pathways

The results of this research call for robust waste collection strategies and investment in decentralized biomethane production facilities. Municipalities must improve organic waste segregation and implement biomethane capture technologies to harness the full potential of this resource. Doing so not only contributes to environmental sustainability and reduced carbon emissions but also supports local economic development through job creation and energy independence. Policies aligned with waste-to-energy principles can transform Birbhum into a model district for circular economy and green energy innovation.

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